News
Why Some Ecosystems Collapse Suddenly—And Others Don’t
Laboratory experiments on magnets provide surprising insights into the future of Earth’s tipping points

18 July, 2025

A new study published today in the journal One Earth reveals that the way ecosystems collapse—abruptly or gradually—may depend on internal complexity, much like how magnetic materials behave under stress.

The study, led by Professor John Dearing at the University of Southampton with colleagues from Rothamsted Research, Bangor University, and Edinburgh University, challenges the prevailing assumption that climate tipping points always happen suddenly. Instead, it shows that some large-scale Earth systems may be experiencing gradual collapses that are easy to miss, with profound implications for climate policy and planetary resilience.

"Some systems snap. Others sag," said Rothamsted's Professor Simon Willcock, one of the study team. "Our findings suggest that the classic model of abrupt tipping—like a lake suddenly turning green from algae—may not apply to some of Earth’s most important systems, such as forests, ice sheets, or ocean currents."

To investigate, the researchers turned to an unlikely source: magnetic materials. In the lab, magnets can be pushed between alternative states using external fields. These stress-responses mirror how ecosystems shift under environmental pressure. The team found that materials with simpler, homogeneous structures showed abrupt, irreversible changes akin to ‘hard’ tipping points. But more complex materials exhibited ‘soft’ tipping, where changes occurred incrementally as internal components realigned.

This analogy helps explain why large, diverse systems like rainforests or ocean circulation, may appear stable even as they quietly reorganise under stress.

Key insights from the study:

  • Complex systems reorganise gradually under stress, masking early signs of collapse.
  • Faster climate change increases the risk of abrupt transitions, even in systems that would otherwise change gradually.
  • Systems that change gradually may be more easily restored if action is taken early enough.
  • Viewing ecosystems at the wrong scale may cause policymakers to miss vital warning signs.

The authors warn that inaction could be fatal, as delayed responses allow stress to accumulate unnoticed—like frogs unaware that the water is boiling.

"Our work suggests we may already be crossing tipping points without realising," said Dearing. "For too long, we’ve treated tipping points as dramatic collapses. These findings show that some systems may slide into collapse silently. That makes them even more dangerous. Slowing the rate of climate change is essential—not only to avoid catastrophic collapse, but to buy time for systems to adapt and recover."

Graphic

“Slow changes can be deceptive,” said co-author Professor Roy Thompson.  “Laboratory observations of tipping points in magnetic materials give us a safe, controlled way to understand what we can’t test directly in ecosystems and in the global climate system, without relying on computer models.”

The study underscores the importance of scale, complexity, and timing in both modelling and managing global change. It calls for more nuanced definitions of tipping points, investment in high-resolution monitoring, and urgent action to reduce the pace of environmental stressors.

“This work flips the script on climate risk,” said Willcock. "Not all tipping points are abrupt. Some are slow and silent—and we may already be inside them.  If we wait for ecosystems to scream, we’ll have waited too long. The real danger is in systems that whisper while they fall apart.”

Publication
Reconciling global tipping point theories: insight from magnetic experiments
Contacts

Prof. Simon Willcock

PRINCIPAL RESEARCH SCIENTIST

ABOUT ROTHAMSTED RESEARCH

Rothamsted Research is the longest-running agricultural research institute in the world. We work from gene to field with a proud history of ground-breaking discoveries in areas as diverse as crop management, statistical interpretation and soil health. Our founders, in 1843, were the pioneers of modern agriculture, and we are known for our imaginative science and our collaborative approach to developing innovative farm practice.
Through independent research, we make significant contributions to improving agri-food systems in the UK and internationally, with economic impact estimated to exceed £3 bn in annual contribution to the UK economy. Our strength lies in our systems approach, which combines strategic research, interdisciplinary teams and multiple partnerships.
Rothamsted is home to three unique National Bioscience Research Infrastructures which are open to researchers from all over the world: The Long-Term Experiments, Rothamsted Insect Survey and the North Wyke Farm Platform.
We are strategically funded by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC), with additional support from other national and international funding streams, and from industry. We are also supported by the Lawes Agricultural Trust (LAT).

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The Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council is part of UK Research and Innovation, a non-departmental public body funded by a grant-in-aid from the UK government.
BBSRC invests to push back the frontiers of biology and deliver a healthy, prosperous and sustainable future. Through our investments, we build and support a vibrant, dynamic and inclusive community which delivers ground-breaking discoveries and develops bio-based solutions that contribute to tackling global challenges, such as sustainable food production, climate change, and healthy ageing.
As part of UK Research and Innovation (UKRI), we not only play a pivotal role in fostering connections that enable the UK’s world-class research and innovation system to flourish – we also have a responsibility to enable the creation of a research culture that is diverse, resilient, and engaged.
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ABOUT LAT

The Lawes Agricultural Trust, established in 1889 by Sir John Bennet Lawes, supports Rothamsted Research’s national and international agricultural science through the provision of land, facilities and funding. LAT, a charitable trust, owns the estates at Harpenden and Broom's Barn, including many of the buildings used by Rothamsted Research. LAT provides an annual research grant to the Director, accommodation for nearly 200 people, and support for fellowships for young scientists from developing countries. LAT also makes capital grants to help modernise facilities at Rothamsted, or invests in new buildings.

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